Our publications are the institutional record of our analytical work — the arguments we are willing to put our name to, the evidence we are willing to defend, the questions we judge worth the field's attention. We publish when we have something to say, not on a schedule. Alongside our written output, we are developing analytical tools that put parts of our methodology directly into practitioners' hands — the first will appear on this page as they are released.
Beyond written publications, we are building a set of analytical tools that operationalise our methodology for practitioners, donors, and researchers working on governance, P/CVE, and economic recovery in North Africa. The first tools developed by our team will be released here as they become available.
Why the right intervention at the wrong time fails — and how to sequence recovery programs to match what fragile systems can actually absorb. Drawing on the North African experience across Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, this analysis develops a three-layer absorptive capacity framework and identifies three predictable failure mechanisms of "quick wins."
The evidence paradox: high informational capacity coexisting with weak decision quality. This analysis examines six institutional dynamics — overload, bounded rationality, cognitive heuristics, political feasibility, audit culture, and learning-decision misalignment — that systematically transform good evidence into delay, defence, or legitimation material.
How shadow rules, patronage channels, and parallel decision systems shape implementation — and what it means for policy and programming. This analysis applies Helmke and Levitsky's typology of informal–formal institutional interaction to governance realities across North Africa, explaining why technically correct reforms underperform.
Polycrisis dynamics and shrinking financing are punishing siloed solutions. This analysis argues that integration is not a coordination aspiration but a decision system — one that makes trade-offs governable, reduces duplication, and protects outcomes under uncertainty. It examines four technical properties of a donor-grade integrated approach.
Reform failure stops looking mysterious and starts looking patterned once you accept that implementation is a continuation of politics by other means. Drawing on Grindle, Helmke and Levitsky, Tsebelis, and Pressman and Wildavsky, this analysis argues for a shift from "best practice" design toward politically viable pathways to functional change.
Why the integration of political science, economics, and sociology offers the most powerful framework for transforming data into actionable insights in complex settings. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a concrete illustration of how multi-lens analysis illuminates what single-disciplinary approaches systematically miss.
An original analysis of the structural transformation affecting the international development workforce in MENA. Drawing on transition data from the Reconversion Lab platform and primary interviews with sector practitioners, the paper maps where displaced professionals are moving — and where the system is failing them. A preview of forthcoming sector workforce analysis.
A synthesis brief drawing on a decade of programme implementation data and field practice across Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya. The brief examines what has worked, what has not, and what the next generation of P/CVE programming in the region should look like — with practical guidance for donors and implementing partners.
A structured assessment of Tunisia's governance trajectory five years after the constitutional changes of 2022. Examining institutional integrity, civic space, the security-development nexus, and the implications for international engagement strategies. Grounded in primary interviews with insider actors across government, civil society, and donor institutions.
Complexia's flagship annual publication assessing the structural dynamics shaping governance, security, and economic recovery across Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya. The first edition will establish a methodological rhythm of high-quality knowledge production under our institutional name, drawing on primary research conducted across the three countries.
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A short email when we release a new working paper, policy brief, or country note. No marketing, no digest, no list-sharing — just the publications themselves. Roughly once every 4–6 weeks.