Publications

Working papers, briefs & analytical commentary.

Our publications are the institutional record of our analytical work — the arguments we are willing to put our name to, the evidence we are willing to defend, the questions we judge worth the field's attention. We publish when we have something to say, not on a schedule.

Type
Theme
Analysis
September 2026
Organisational Capacity
Published

The Funding Rules Changed. Most Civil Society Organisations Were Never Told.

Official development assistance fell 23.1% in 2025 — the steepest single-year drop the OECD has ever recorded, with five donors accounting for 96% of it. This analysis sets out what the published data shows, why local and national CSOs are absorbing it first, and what funders now screen for when the question shifts from "is your cause worthy?" to "can we trust you with what little we have?" It closes with six questions an organisation can use to locate its own gap.

ODA cuts Civil society Organisational capacity Localisation
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~1,750 words · No. 07
Perspective
September 2026
Sector & Institutions
Published

The Great Aid-Sector Transition: What the Funding Collapse Actually Means

The funding collapse is not a cycle to wait out. Three structural shifts — consolidation into fewer and larger awards, a localisation that transferred cost and risk rather than power, and due diligence displacing ideas as the real competition — have changed what the sector rewards. Displaced professionals and unfundable organisations are the same crisis seen from two ends: an inability to demonstrate, in legible form, a capability that genuinely exists.

Aid sector restructuring Localisation Organisational fundability Career transition
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~1,800 words · The Great Restructuring
Analysis
May 2026
Economic Recovery
Published

Sequencing Before Design: The Strategic Logic of Economic Recovery in Fragile Contexts

Why the right intervention at the wrong time fails — and how to sequence recovery programs to match what fragile systems can actually absorb. Drawing on the North African experience across Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, this analysis develops a three-layer absorptive capacity framework and identifies three predictable failure mechanisms of "quick wins."

Economic recovery Fragile states Sequencing North Africa
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~4,800 words · No. 02
Policy Analysis
May 2026
Governance & Institutions
Published

Why Institutions Make Poor Decisions Despite "Good Evidence"

The evidence paradox: high informational capacity coexisting with weak decision quality. This analysis examines six institutional dynamics — overload, bounded rationality, cognitive heuristics, political feasibility, audit culture, and learning-decision misalignment — that systematically transform good evidence into delay, defence, or legitimation material.

Evidence-based policy Institutional behaviour Decision architecture Governance
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~4,200 words · No. 03
Analysis
February 2026
Political Economy & Power
Published

Informal Institutions: The Systems That Actually Govern Outcomes

How shadow rules, patronage channels, and parallel decision systems shape implementation — and what it means for policy and programming. This analysis applies Helmke and Levitsky's typology of informal–formal institutional interaction to governance realities across North Africa, explaining why technically correct reforms underperform.

Informal institutions Political economy Governance Institutional bypass
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~3,600 words · No. 04
Analysis
January 2026
Economic Recovery
Published

Integrated Programming in International Development: Why It's Strategically Necessary Now

Polycrisis dynamics and shrinking financing are punishing siloed solutions. This analysis argues that integration is not a coordination aspiration but a decision system — one that makes trade-offs governable, reduces duplication, and protects outcomes under uncertainty. It examines four technical properties of a donor-grade integrated approach.

Integrated programming HDP Nexus Aid effectiveness Polycrisis
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~3,400 words · No. 05
Analysis
January 2026
Political Economy & Power
Published

Why Technically Sound Reforms Fail: A Political Economy Perspective

Reform failure stops looking mysterious and starts looking patterned once you accept that implementation is a continuation of politics by other means. Drawing on Grindle, Helmke and Levitsky, Tsebelis, and Pressman and Wildavsky, this analysis argues for a shift from "best practice" design toward politically viable pathways to functional change.

Reform failure Political economy Veto players PDIA
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~3,800 words · No. 06
Commentary
July 2024
Research & Evidence
Published

The Power of Multidisciplinary Analysis in Complex Crisis

Why the integration of political science, economics, and sociology offers the most powerful framework for transforming data into actionable insights in complex settings. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a concrete illustration of how multi-lens analysis illuminates what single-disciplinary approaches systematically miss.

Multidisciplinary analysis Research methodology Complex crisis
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~2,400 words · No. 01
Working paper
June 2026
Research & Evidence
Economic Recovery
Published

The North African Workforce in Transition: Sector Restructuring & Career Resilience

An original analysis of the structural transformation affecting the international development workforce in MENA. Drawing on transition data from the Reconversion Lab platform and primary interviews with sector practitioners, the paper maps where displaced professionals are moving — and where the system is failing them. A preview of forthcoming sector workforce analysis.

Workforce Sector restructuring Career resilience MENA
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28 pages · DOI pending
Policy brief
Q4 2026
P/CVE & Peacebuilding
Forthcoming

P/CVE Programme Design in North Africa: A Decade of Lessons

A synthesis brief drawing on a decade of programme implementation data and field practice across Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya. The brief examines what has worked, what has not, and what the next generation of P/CVE programming in the region should look like — with practical guidance for donors and implementing partners.

P/CVE Programme design Tunisia Libya Algeria
Coming Q4 2026 Notify me on release
Expected: 12 pages
Country note
Q1 2027
Governance & Institutions
Forthcoming

Tunisia: Governance Trajectory Five Years On

A structured assessment of Tunisia's governance trajectory five years after the constitutional changes of 2022. Examining institutional integrity, civic space, the security-development nexus, and the implications for international engagement strategies. Grounded in primary interviews with insider actors across government, civil society, and donor institutions.

Tunisia Democratic backsliding Civic space Institutional reform
Coming Q1 2027 Notify me on release
Expected: 18 pages
Annual report
2027
Cross-thematic
In scoping

State of Governance & Security in North Africa — first edition

Complexia's flagship annual publication assessing the structural dynamics shaping governance, security, and economic recovery across Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya. The first edition will establish a methodological rhythm of high-quality knowledge production under our institutional name, drawing on primary research conducted across the three countries.

Flagship Annual report North Africa
In scoping Express interest
Expected: 60–80 pages

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